#51 震 Quake –Prepared & Recovery – Risk Management

 

#51 震 Quake –Prepared & Recovery – Risk Management 

震 震为雷 震上震下

This hexagram has a Thunder trigram on top and bottom. It is Quake or Shock. It is the earth opening its mouth creating deep cracks. It is a powerful force of destruction. Earthquake is a natural phenomenon. It is beyond our control. But we can prepare for it. Better preparation results in less panic and damage. Quake can also apply to man-made systems. It destroys the old to make way for the new.

Description:

1. 亨: Smooth Flow (making progress).
2. 震来虩虩，笑言哑哑。 Quake terrifies. Yet there is Laughter.
3. 震惊百里，不丧匕鬯。 The shock reaches a hundred miles away. Yet the wine in the ladle did not spill.

Textual Commentary:

彖曰：震，亨。 震来虩虩，恐致福也。 笑言哑哑，后有则也。  震惊百里，惊远而惧迩也。  出可以守宗庙社稷，以为祭主也。

Quake brings forth a smooth flow. Quake terrifies. But fear, (causing us to prepare for it), brings blessings. There is a good laugh because the prediction and safety rules and systems to handle it work. Quake reaches a hundred miles away. It terrifies the far and near. He is able to come forth to take good care of ancestry temples and his country. He is the spiritual leader to conducts the worship.

Pictorial Commentary: 象曰：洊雷，震；君子以恐惧修身

Continued thunder is Quake. A wise man builds up his character in fear of failing to be a good person.

Moral Teachings:

1. Quake is a powerfully destructive force. Hence
2. We must be prepared for Quake happening so that we are not taken by surprise and suffer great loss.
3. With a proper system of preparation, prediction, damage minimization, and other risk management, we minimized the destructive impact of the quake and could even have cheered when it happened. The hexagram specifically points out to have laws to handle it.
4. A good leader must have the foresight to see what could happen and have the insight to take care of the eventuality.
5. An attitude of precaution, or in modern management terms, risk management, is a good attribute and virtue to develop.
6. There is a common misunderstanding about risk management. Most can point out the possible risks in a project. However proper risk management should include the recovery work needed when the risk actually happens.
7. For a business, many things could happen and we could not prepare for all. So, what types of risks should a business prepare for? One wise man says, list out the things that keep you awake at night. What are the critical success factors for your business? What are the key assumptions underlying your business success? When that thing you fear most happens, what could you do? Work out the recovery plans, dry run, and test them, for those critical factors of your business.

Stage 1 Begin Nine: Quake happens and terrifies. Later, there is laughter. Good fortune. 初九：震来虩虩，后笑言哑哑，吉。
The pictorial commentary explains that fearing the worse, (one makes preparations), and brings forth blessings. The laughter is due to the successful applications of the methods. 象曰：震来虩虩，恐致福也。 笑言哑哑，后有则也。

When one is well prepared for the worst, the disaster, then the happening of the disaster will not bring forth sadness but joy. A successful Chicken Fast Food chain business had to close due to the birth flu resulting in a loss of supply of chicken. On the other hand, I had a friend who ran a very successful meat supply business that prospered well during the swine flu. Why? He had already planned for it and had supplies from multiple countries and even jointly invested in a pig farm in another country. He laughed because of greater success while his competitors cried because their business had to be shut down.

Stage 2 Second Six: Quake brings danger. There is a great loss of money. Run and stay at the high hills. Don’t pursue(the lost money). After seven days will get them back. 六二：震来厉，亿丧贝，跻于九陵，勿逐，七日得。
The pictorial commentary explains the danger of quakes comes from their strong forces. 象曰：震来厉，乘刚也。

When the forces against us are much greater than us, the only way out is to run and not resist them. We may incur large losses but don’t go after or hold on to the money. Forgone them and run. The important thing to do at that time was to go to places of safety.  Chinese has a saying, “留得青山在，不怕没柴烧”, as long as I have my life, signified by the green woods, I don’t have to worry about not having woods for a fire. Once we are safe and away from the disaster, we can start to earn back the money lost. The wording says after a week, a short period, we will gain back our money without our pursuit. A certain disaster like fire can be insured. However, with insurance, the insurer will insist that you follow the necessary preventive procedures first before they pay you. A friend lost his insurance payment for a fire that destroyed his factory because of inadequate preventive measures.  In the Bible, we have the famous story of Lot’s wife turning into a pillar of salt because she looked back after being told not to. She could not bear the loss of her property and took a real final look. Get our priority right, in a disaster, run for your life first rather than perish with the wealth.

Stage 3 Third Six: Quake brings fear to the heart. The fear of the future and taking action now bring no harm. 六三：震苏苏，震行无眚
The pictorial commentary explains that fear comes from occupying an incorrect position. 象曰：震苏苏，位不当也。

A short interpretation of this line is Quake awakens the sleeping to take action. The quake comes from the wrong positioning. Standing in an incorrect position brings instability and eventually a quake. We must put things in order to prevent quakes. Don’t wait till it quakes, do it now.

Stage 4 Fourth Nine: Quake causes sinking in the mud. 九四：震遂泥。
The pictorial commentary explains the sinking is due to a lack of brightness. 象曰：震遂泥，未光也。

When one character is not well developed (the light not shining) and has some area of weakness, the quake will expose the weakness even more. Quake exposes our flaws. In good times, when everyone is making money, we cannot tell who are the truly strong ones. In a recession, we can immediately tell which are the stronger and better-run companies.

Stage 5 Fifth Six: Quake comes and goes repeatedly. It is dangerous. Yet there is no loss. There is a thing to do. 六五：震往来厉，亿无丧，有事。
The pictorial commentary explains that the quake’s frequent activity is causing danger all around. Doing things from the center of righteousness will bring no great loss. 象曰：震往来厉，危行也。 其事在中，大无丧也。

The only sure way to ride through all the dangers and shaking is to stay in the central position. When we anchor ourselves to a stable rock, the moral principles, we can face all the storms and the shaking of life.

Stage 6 Top Six: Quake causes trembling fear. Looking here and there (not knowing what to do). Any activity (in a panic) will bring disaster. Quake does not happen to us. It happens to our neighbor. There is no fault. Having a wedding will invite criticism. 上六：震索索，视矍矍，征凶。 震不于其躬，于其邻，无咎。 婚媾有言。
The pictorial commentary explains the fear of Quake comes from not getting the central position. There is danger but no harm. Fearing what has happened to our neighbor may happen to us too, we take preventive measures. 象曰：震索索，未得中也。 虽凶无咎，畏邻戒也。

Without adequate preparation, we will panic when a quake happens. Doing anything in a panic will only bring disaster.   It is fortunate that a quake happens to our neighbor first thereby giving us time to heed the warning and get ourselves prepared. Nevertheless, having a wedding celebration at this time when our neighbor is suffering is not right. It will invite criticism. We do not laugh at other people’s disasters. Just take the warning and go to help them.

There is the possibility that because we are well prepared for the quake, with our houses and structures strengthened whereas our neighbor did not, it appears that the quake only hit our neighbor and not us. It is important to note that when earthquakes happen in countries like Japan where the people are well prepared, the destruction and loss of lives are not as bad as those in other countries that are not prepared.

Summary:

Be prepared for worse and other unseen events, then you can have peace of mind even when the disaster happens. Develop this mental alertness and do proper risk management – find critical factors, plan recovery, implement, test, and review regularly. Be prepared for the eventuality.

Wisdom from the Stage Lines:

1. Prepare for Quake and there will be laughter later.
2. Quake endangers. Run to safety first. Money comes later.
3. Quake awakens. Put the house in stable structure & order. Get organized.
4. Quake exposes our flaws. Fix them up in good time before it is too late.
5. Quake Proofing – Have righteousness at the center.
6. Quake at a neighbor’s. Be comforted that we are prepared and suffer not. But it is not the time for celebration.

Lim Liat (c) 13/6/2010