09 July 2024

Sun Zi's Teaching on Strategies - Understanding International Warfares

Sun Zi's Art of War Chapter 3 is about 谋攻 Attack Strategies/Plan. 

The key verses are:

是故百战百胜,非善之善者也;不战而屈人之兵,善之善者也。

故上兵伐谋,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。

The literal translation is:

"Therefore, winning a hundred battles is not the best of strategies; subduing the enemy's army without fighting is the best of strategies.

Thus, the best strategy is to attack the enemy's plans, the next is to disrupt their alliances, the next is to attack their troops, and the worst is to attack their cities."

I normally give my dynamic translation as:

Winning every battle is not the best. The best is to win without a fight.

The best is to win by strategies, next by alliances and negotiations, the third is to fight and the worst is to be forced to attack a castle/city.

The Ukraine-Russian Conflicts

I have covered that in the following posts:

What can we learn from the Present Russian Ukraine War? (Art of War in Action)

What can we learn from the Present Russian Ukraine War? (Art of War in Action - Part 2)

What can we learn from the Present Russian Ukraine War? (Art of War in Action - Part 3)

What can we learn from the Present Russian Ukraine War? (Art of War in Action - Part 4) The Better Way

China Unification of Taiwan

With the principles shown above, it is understandable that China's preferred choice is to unify Taiwan peacefully.  The US's strategy is to force China to take the worst-case scenario of street-fightings in Taiwan and it is doing that by supporting the pro-Taiwan independence fractions indirectly.

The four alternatives of attack can also be seen as four stages of war if winning cannot be achieved at the earlier and better strategies.

Stage 1 China's best strategy to unify Taiwan peacefully is done in two major trusts:

1. Push - Threats of War. China is building its military strengths to be superior to Taiwan's, surrounding Taiwan with many war simulations etc.

2. Pull - Soft approach of gaining Taiwanese people's support through better trading terms (reducing them since it does not seem to work well), cultural, information, etc.

Stage 2 Negotiations and Alliances

1. Reducing Taiwanese' diplomatic relations with countries. Now is down to 10. If it is zero, then Taiwan is not recognized as a country by anyone any more.

2. Establishing channels for contact and negotiations.

Stage 3 Attack - Hopefully this does not happen because it will result in great loss of lives.

Stage 4 Fighting in Cities - This is the worst case and hopefully it does not happen. 


 

24 June 2024

Generative AI Engines Compared using An Ancient Chinese Story

How good are the various AI engines that can give you principles from the cases given to them?

I took a historical case from 《战国策》赵四·赵太后新用事  “The Warring States Stratagems” Zhao Chapter 4 – Zhao Empress Began to Rule -to make sure the case study used is a real one.

I fed the Chinese version of the story to all the tested AI engines. The translation from Chinese to English was done using ChatGPT.  Below is the mind map comparing them.

From the same story, I also distill my principles, which are included for comparison with AI engines.

Personally, with some bias, of course, my distill principles are better than all the AI engines. 
It shows that AI engines give reasonable answers but human beings with the right expertise can do better.

Among the AI engines, I think, for this particular case, KIMI is the best.

What do you think? Please add your comments to this post.


The above map (except for the branch Lim Liat) is translated from the following Chinese text mind map:


The Case Study Story:

赵太后新用事,秦急攻之。赵氏求救于齐,齐曰:“必以长安君为质,兵乃出。”太后不肯,大臣强谏。太后明谓左右:“有复言令长安君为质者,老妇必唾其面。”   左师触龙言愿见太后。太后盛气而揖之。入而徐趋,至而自谢,曰:“老臣病足,曾不能疾走,不得见久矣。窃自恕,而恐太后玉体之有所郄也,故愿望见太后。”太后曰:“老妇恃辇而行。”曰:“日食饮得无衰乎?”曰:“恃粥耳。”曰:“老臣今者殊不欲食,乃自强步,日三四里,少益耆食,和于身。”太后曰:“老妇不能。”太后之色少解。   左师公曰:“老臣贱息舒祺,最少,不肖;而臣衰,窃爱怜之。愿令得补黑衣之数,以卫王宫。没死以闻。”太后曰:“敬诺。年几何矣?”对曰:“十五岁矣。虽少,愿及未填沟壑而托之。”太后曰:“丈夫亦爱怜其少子乎?”对曰:“甚于妇人。”太后笑曰:“妇人异甚。”对曰:“老臣窃以为媪之爱燕后贤于长安君。”曰:“君过矣!不若长安君之甚。”左师公曰:“父母之爱子,则为之计深远。媪之送燕后也,持其踵,为之泣,念悲其远也,亦哀之矣。已行,非弗思也,祭祀必祝之,祝曰:‘必勿使反。’岂非计久长,有子孙相继为王也哉?”太后曰:“然。”   左师公曰:“今三世以前,至于赵之为赵,赵王之子孙侯者,其继有在者乎?”曰:“无有。”曰:“微独赵,诸侯有在者乎?”曰:“老妇不闻也。”“此其近者祸及身,远者及其子孙。岂人主之子孙则必不善哉?位尊而无功,奉厚而无劳,而挟重器多也。今媪尊长安君之位,而封之以膏腴之地,多予之重器,而不及今令有功于国,一旦山陵崩,长安君何以自托于赵?老臣以媪为长安君计短也,故以为其爱不若燕后。”太后曰:“诺,恣君之所使之。”   于是为长安君约车百乘,质于齐,齐兵乃出。   子义闻之曰:“人主之子也,骨肉之亲也,犹不能恃无功之尊、无劳之奉,而守金玉之重也,而况人臣乎。”

The translation:

The Queen Dowager of Zhao had just taken power, and Qin launched a sudden attack. Zhao sought help from Qi, but Qi said, "Only if the Lord of Chang'an is sent as a hostage will we send troops." The Queen Dowager refused, and the ministers strongly urged her. The Queen Dowager openly declared to her attendants, "If anyone dares to suggest sending the Lord of Chang'an as a hostage again, I will spit in their face."

The senior official, Chu Long, requested to see the Queen Dowager. She received him angrily. Upon entering, he walked slowly and apologized, saying, "I am an old servant with leg problems and cannot walk quickly. I have not seen you for a long time. I worry about your health and have come to see you." The Queen Dowager replied, "I rely on a carriage to move around." He asked, "Has your daily food and drink intake decreased?" She said, "I rely on porridge." He said, "I have no appetite lately, but I force myself to walk three or four miles a day, which improves my appetite and benefits my health." The Queen Dowager said, "I cannot do that." Her expression softened a little.

Chu Long said, "I have an unworthy youngest son, Shu Qi, whom I love dearly because I am old. I wish to have him serve as the palace guard to protect the royal family. Even if I die, I will be at peace." The Queen Dowager said, "Agreed. How old is he?" He replied, "Fifteen. Though young, I hope he can serve before it’s too late." The Queen Dowager asked, "Do men love their youngest sons as much as women do?" He answered, "More so than women." The Queen Dowager laughed, "Women are very different." He said, "I think you love the Lord of Yan more than the Lord of Chang'an." She replied, "You are mistaken! My love for the Lord of Chang'an is much greater." Chu Long said, "Parents who love their children plan for their long-term future. When you sent the Lord of Yan away, you held his heel and cried because you were sad about his departure. But once he left, you did not forget him and prayed during rituals, hoping he would not return. Isn’t this planning for the long-term so that your descendants can continue to rule?" The Queen Dowager said, "Indeed."

Chu Long continued, "From three generations ago to the present, among the descendants of the Zhao kings, are there any who still hold noble titles?" She said, "None." He asked, "Not just in Zhao, but among the other feudal lords, are there any descendants still holding titles?" She replied, "I have not heard of any." He said, "This is because the closer ones faced disaster themselves, and the farther ones affected their descendants. Is it that the rulers’ descendants are necessarily incompetent? No, it’s because they have high status without merit, receive great rewards without labor, and possess many valuable items. Now you honor the Lord of Chang'an, grant him fertile lands, and give him many valuable items. Yet, if he does not contribute to the country now, how will he secure his position in Zhao if something happens to you? I think your plan for the Lord of Chang'an is short-sighted and shows less love than for the Lord of Yan." The Queen Dowager said, "You are right, do as you suggest."

Thus, they prepared a hundred carriages and sent the Lord of Chang'an to Qi as a hostage, and Qi dispatched troops.

Zi Yi, upon hearing this, said, "Even the son of a ruler, though of royal blood, cannot rely on status without merit or rewards without labor to secure precious items. How much more so for ministers?"

Lim Liat (c) 24 Jun 24