The Stupidity and Misleading Reports of Our Media for COVID-19 Death

Here is the report:

Vaccinated people accounted for 30% of COVID-19 deaths last year: Ong Ye Kung - CNA

Consider this: vaccinated accounted for 30% of the COVID-19 Deaths.

The fact is true. Of the 100% Death 70% unvaccinated, 30% vaccinated

But what does it mean?

A smart reporter should help readers understand the truth instead of leaving them to misinterpret the truth.

A direct interpretation is unvaccinated is 70/30 = 2.33 times more likely to die than the vaccinated.

But this is wrong.

But, one should know that Singapore's vaccination rate is 95%.

The population of the unvaccinated is P * 5%, where P is the population size,

and the population of vaccinated is P*95%

So the probability of deaths of unvaccinated over the vaccinated is actually:

(D*70%/P*5%) / (D*30%/P*95%) , (where D is total no of deaths)

= (70%*95%)/(5%*30%)

= 44.33!

i.e. The conclusion is shocking, the unvaccinated are 44 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than the vaccinated in Singapore.

An improvement is needed:

Last year, the vaccination rate is not 95%. It started with 0 and ends with 85% fully vaccinated. (The report gave a higher figure of 90% The Ministry of Health (MOH) has managed to vaccinate "well over 90 percent" of every eligible age group over the past months,)

Most of the deaths come in the Oct to Dec peak.

During those time, the vaccination rate was about 80+%.

So, maybe a better fit is 80%.

(70%*80%)/(20%*30%) = 9.33

If we use 83%, the December fully Vaccination rate, we will get 11.39

A good estimate will be 10.

"the unvaccinated are 10 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than the vaccinated in Singapore".

Lim Liat (c) 15 Jan 2022